A year after the most confusing ceremony in recent memory, the Oscars are back this Sunday. Awarding the most notorious films of 2017, this year marks the 90th anniversary of the Academy Awards, and it’s time to make some serious predictions about who’s taking home the gold.

With heavy contenders like early-year favorite Dunkirk and the beautiful fantasy film The Shape of Water, this ceremony will be one to watch. Especially because a lot of people will be waiting for a crazy time like last year’s La La Land versus Moonlight moment!

Here are our predictions for the top categories for this weekend’s awards show.

Best Leading Actress: Frances McDormand

Possible Upset: No-one

Over two decades after getting her first Oscar for Fargo, the Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri actress is getting the gold again. She’s become the clear favorite over the past couple of months, and while fellow actresses Saoirse Ronan and Sally Hawkings are also extraordinary, this is McDormand’s Oscar to lose.

Best Leading Actor: Gary Oldman

Possible Upset: No-one

An overdue Oscar if ever there was one, Darkest Hour marks only the second nomination for Oldman. He’s won every other award for his characterization of Winston Churchill, and he’ll be laughing all the way to the podium. Expect a standing ovation only comparable to Leonardo DiCaprio’s win in 2016. Sunday will be Oldman’s night, no doubt. As Daniel Day-Lewis has retired, this could be his last nomination, but since he’s got three statuettes at home, he can let fellow great step in.

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Possible Upset: Laurie Metcalf

Completely killing it as Tonya Harding’s mother in I, Tonya has definitely paid off for the West Wing alum, who’s snatched every season award on the way to the Oscars. There’s a distant chance that Metcalf, also known mostly for her TV work, could upset the category as the difficult but loving mother in Lady Bird.

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell

Possible Upset: Willem Dafoe

After bagging the Globe, the Bafta and the Screen Actors Guild, the Three Billboards actor seems like a sure win. Dafoe’s amazing performance in The Florida Project and his status as one of the most respected character actors in Hollywood could pose the only threat.

Best Original Screenplay: Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible Upset: Lady Bird or Get Out

Martin McDonagh wrote and directed Three Billboards, but didn’t get a nod for his work directing. Due to the film’s critical success, growing momentum and definitely great screenplay, McDonagh seems a lock in the category.

In the current political turmoil, there’s a strong chance either of the directorial débuts, Greta Gerwig’s Lady Bird or Jordan Peele’s Get Out, could find themselves with the gold. These are both great screenplays in their own right, but they could just as easily cancel each other out when it comes to the votes.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Call Me By Your Name

Possible Upset: Mudbound

Beautifully adapted from a beloved book, James Ivory’s Call Me By Your Name screenplay seems to be a lock for the win in this category. It was also a movie with a lot of love from critics, so this major award could be its “salvation,” so to speak.

Best Director: Guillermo Del Toro

Possible Upset: No-one

After years of delivering beautiful fantasy stories like Pan’s Labyrinth and Crimson Peak, this is Del Toro’s year. In fact, it might be the most predictable win of the night: on the way to the Oscars, he’s won the Golden Globe, the BAFTA and even the Directors Guild.

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible Upset: The Shape of Water

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is a character-oriented drama with a strange sense of humor, and its strong female lead could give it an edge in current #MeToo times. It also won Best Picture at the Golden Globes. Plus, for the past few years, the Academy has split the vote between Director and Picture, so it wouldn’t be too shocking.

Another (close) possibility is critics’ darling The Shape of Water. A beautiful film that speaks in images more than words, Del Toro’s fantasy seems tailor-made to get the top award at the Oscars. This is particularly true after last year’s winner, since Moonlight is such a small and emotionally intense movie.